Trump does not understand history. I was very concerned about tariffs because the immediate economic harm it will inflict on the world. Theoretically speaking, even if Trump succeeds in bringing back jobs into the US, he would still fail because he would hurt the rest of the world and put the US’s national security at risk.
Trump must understand that globalization does work. It helps poor countries become wealthy and stabilizes the world from suffering from political violence and destruction. We have had relative peace in the world since 1945 because the US reduced trade barriers and allowed economies to grow with the use of its military. Trump is trying to do away with this system. But it will fail.
Europe Becoming Europe Again
If the US fails to provide security to Europe and it becomes independent from the US, then Europe will be Europe again. The Europeans have proved themselves to be war hungry and avaricious towards gaining power. They have a hard time staying united and their appetite for power usually led to war and devastation. And we are already seeing this. Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, igniting war in Europe for the first time since 1945. And already the European Union is very weak. It should have collapsed 10 years ago from austerity but the political elites held it together. The major European countries are suffering from economic decline generated from demographics and cultural matters. If the economic challenges become too great, the EU can collapse and lead Europe to be a continent ablaze in war. This would eventually bring the US back into the continent to restore order.
Third World Instability
As noted above, globalization leads to poor countries becoming wealthy. But if globalization ends, then those countries have no sensible way to grow. This causes poverty and crime to flourish with the concomitant humanitarian problems to flourish in tandem. If Trump enacts tariffs on every country with tariffs on the US, this will only create more instability in poor countries as foreign investment will dry up if investing is cost prohibitive. If such things as famines break out, then the US and the West would have to help those countries on humanitarian grounds. Thus, it would be more sensible for Trump to eliminate tariffs and allow free trade to flourish given these complications. And as one will see, tariffs or export restrictions can start political revolutions that could be very disruptive.
Tariffs Can Start Political Revolutions
In the summer of 2010, Russia had a wildfire that destroyed a good portion of wheat in Siberia due to severe heat. The wildfire was so great that Russia had export barriers to the Middle East and Africa to limit the amount of wheat it gave to those regions. What occurred a few months later was the Arab Spring, as it swept across the Middle East and Africa. Millions of people suffered and thousands of people died. Governments were toppled overnight, and many of the countries affected haven’t recovered since the revolution.
In the German elections of 1928, the Nazi party received only 12 parliamentary seats in the Reichstag. Germans were relatively well from the American loans sustaining the battered German economy. But 1929 hit and Germany was hit very hard. The 1930 Smoot-Hawley tariffs worsened the Great Depression and caused political revolution in Europe. In the 1930 German election, the Nazi Party received 107 seats in the Reichstag. In 1932, they received 132 seats. By 1933, the Enabling Act effectively destroyed the Reichstag by giving Hitler total power. All other political parties were banned and only the Nazi Party were in elections soon afterward. And what happened afterward was WW2. The Nazis grabbed power because economic conditions were horrid and they took advantage of the German people feeling angry.
In short, history has demonstrated that economic decline can produce political revolution. If Trump wins to push tariffs as a remedy for America’s perceived weakness, then he will find that this thinking is severely mistaken.
Conclusion
Trump doesn’t realize that his tariff plan could ignite anger and resentment all over the world. America could be rightly considered the cause for this, and this could spark populist leaders destroying democracies and causing war and violence. Trump’s plan of “America First” is total incorrect. America first must include the world’s wellbeing. America must make sure that the world is well. America must make sure that war and violence is mitigated. We do these things through sound economic policy. Trump doesn’t know what he is causing to occur, but he will find out soon enough if he doesn’t change course. His tariff policy puts America’s national security at risk and makes America less secure.